- JD Vance and Tim Walz will be dispatched across the Sun Belt headed into the general election.
- But so far, Walz has made the best impression among swing-state voters in the key region.
- The latest New York Times/Siena College polls showed Walz eclipsing Vance in favorability.
Ohio Sen. JD Vance and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz are both sons of the Midwest, whose respective selections as vice-presidential candidates were rooted in a desire to reach voters in the region.
But both parties hope their VP picks will also appeal to voters in the pivotal Sun Belt.
And so far, it's Walz who has left the best impression there, notably with independents, according to the latest set of New York Times/Siena College battleground state polls.
Across Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina, Walz collectively has a 40% favorability rating among likely voters who identify as independents — while 34% of independents disapproved of the Minnesota governor. This spread gives Walz a net favorability rating of six points with this group.
Vance, meanwhile, is viewed unfavorably by Sun Belt independents. The Ohioan has a minus-11 net favorability rating among the pivotal bloc.
There are some especially glaring red signs for the Republican presidential ticket in Arizona, a state that former President Donald Trump hopes to claw back into the GOP column in November with his border security message.
In Arizona, Vance's favorable rating among all likely voters was 41%, with 49% viewing him unfavorably. But among independents, Vance performed worse. Some 52% of respondents viewed him unfavorably, while 39% saw him favorably. In vote-rich Maricopa County, which is anchored by Phoenix and its populous suburbs, Vance's favorable rating sat at 38%, with 52% viewing him unfavorably.
Walz appears better positioned to help Harris in Arizona.
The governor was viewed favorably by 42% of all likely Arizona voters in the latest survey, while 38% of likely voters viewed him unfavorably. And he's also on positive ground with Arizona independents (43% to 34%) and voters in Maricopa (45% to 37%).
There's still plenty of time for those numbers to shift. Walz's presence on the Democratic tickets is only weeks old, and he is still introducing himself to many Americans. But, so far, he seems to be resonating, even as he faces GOP attacks on his progressive policy stances as governor and conservative criticism of his military service.
Vance, known for his best-selling memoir, "Hillbilly Elegy," had the sort of pre-existing national profile that many observers felt would be an asset for a GOP ticket. But his rollout to a general election audience has been rocky. Vance has been forced to address a raft of controversial past statements — including remarks where he described several Democratic Party leaders as "childless cat ladies" who didn't have a stake in the country's future.
In recent weeks, Vance has sought to shift the conversation to his policy priorities, including a proposed $5,000 child tax credit.